The Summer Slump: Pitchers to Watch Out For
As the weather heats up, so does the competition in the world of fantasy sports. One common refrain among writers is the idea that hitters 'heat up' with the weather, and the statistics seem to back this up. But what about the pitchers? Who are the ones that might struggle as the summer months roll in?
The Summer Surge
It's no secret that warmer weather can impact the game of baseball. Ballparks become more hitter-friendly, and home runs become more frequent. The data shows a clear trend, with the best hitting months consistently being July and August. This is where pitchers need to be wary.
Home Run Heroes and Zeroes
Home runs can quickly bring a pitcher's early-season success back down to earth. So, let's focus on the starting pitchers who have allowed the fewest home runs this season. These pitchers might be the ones to watch, as they could be more vulnerable to the summer surge.
The Elite Few
Pitchers like Jacob Misiorowski, Gage Jump, and Shohei Ohtani are likely safe bets to maintain their low ERAs. Misiorowski, in particular, stands out with his impressive strikeout numbers. However, there are others who might not be so fortunate.
Red Flags and Regression
The pitchers with the most question marks are those with high walk rates, low groundball rates, and low average fastball velocities. These factors can lead to a higher likelihood of allowing summer home runs. I've identified two distinct categories of concern: high walk rates with low fastball velocities and low groundball rates with low fastball velocities.
High Walk Rates, Low Velocity
David Peterson, Landen Roupp, Kris Bubic, Martín Pérez, and Spencer Arrighetti fall into this category. Peterson, despite his high ERA, has shown potential with his strikeout numbers and groundball rate. However, his performance last season suggests he might not be able to sustain this.
Landen Roupp, on the other hand, has the best underlying numbers of the group. His increased strikeout rate and reduced home runs per nine are promising, especially with his improved innings total per start. Roupp's pitch selection and improved Pitching+ make him a solid bet to avoid regression.
Kris Bubic, a breakout star in 2025, is battling injuries this season. His performance might be closer to his true talent level, and he should be considered a high-threes ERA arm if he returns healthy.
Martín Pérez, at 35, is having a surprisingly good season. However, his track record suggests he might struggle in July, making him an interesting trade candidate.
Spencer Arrighetti is the most concerning of this group. His lack of home runs allowed this season doesn't align with his career track record. With diminishing strikeouts, reduced fastball velocity, and increased walks, he's a prime candidate for regression. Selling high on Arrighetti now could be a wise move.
Low Groundball Rates, Low Velocity
Ranger Suarez, Michael Soroka, and Seth Lugo are the pitchers in this category. Suarez, despite his strong start, has a history of second-half struggles. His current performance might be an opportunity to trade him while his value is high.
Michael Soroka is having a resurgence, with his command seemingly returning to its former glory. His improved Location+ and strike zone management make him a buy-low candidate, especially with his injury being unrelated to his previous issues.
Seth Lugo, known for his deep arsenal, is a veteran pitcher who has bounced back this season. However, his strikeout rate has declined significantly, and his low HR/FB% might not be sustainable. Lugo could be a trade candidate in deep leagues, but he carries ratio risk.
Final Thoughts
As the summer months approach, fantasy managers should keep a close eye on these pitchers. The ones with high walk rates and low groundball rates are particularly vulnerable to regression. While some, like Roupp and Soroka, show promise, others might be better off traded or benched. The summer surge is coming, and it's time to make some tough decisions.
